Estimated catalogue value across 37 valued tracks · multiples range from 6× (fast-burn) to 20× (evergreen)
Avg VFG Score
28.65
Value Flow Gap across all 42 tracks · 0 means audience and revenue are equal · 64.75 is the maximum (Asake — Joha)
Avg IDI Score
0.29
Income Distribution Index · on average, 29% of potential home-market revenue is not captured due to low per-stream rates
Widest Capture Gap
Nigeria
VFG avg 47.95 · Nigerian streams earn 10¢ for every $1.00 earned in the US for the same song
Which market has the biggest gap?
Avg VFG Score by Market
Nigeria
India
Brazil
S. Africa
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
Each bar shows how big the gap is between where the audience lives and where the royalty money goes. A taller bar = more value being lost. Nigeria leads because Nigerian fans stream at $0.0004 per stream — one tenth of the US rate — even though millions of them are listening.
Where is the $505M split?
Estimated Catalogue Value by Market
This shows how the estimated total catalogue value of $505M is divided across markets. Mexico leads because it has the biggest streaming numbers globally (Peso Pluma, Eslabon Armado). Nigeria comes third despite the highest capture gap — because its non-decay tracks hold value for years.
Each coloured dot is a home market (large) or diaspora country (small). The curved lines show where the streaming audience flows — the thicker the line, the bigger the audience share in that country. Switch to "Single Track" to see where one specific song's audience comes from.
● Home market (large, coloured)· Diaspora country (small, grey)— Line thickness = audience %Data source: Chartmetric cross-platform audience data (top 10 cities per track from BigQuery audience_cities table). Arc thickness reflects each country's share of cross-platform streams — not Kworb chart positions. Kworb data was used for decay modelling only.
How quickly do songs lose their audience?
% of peak streams retained · weeks from peak date
Think of this like watching a song's audience fade over time. Every line starts at 100% — that's the peak week. A line that drops steeply means most listeners moved on quickly. A line that stays flat means people are still listening years later. The higher a line ends up on the right side, the more valuable that track is long-term. Hover any line to see the track name and exact % retained. Dashed lines = tracks that never really decayed (non-decay Nigerian tracks like Soso, Joha). Toggle "Long-term floor" to see where each track eventually settled.
— Solid line = measured exponential decay- - Dashed line = non-decaying or data too short to model↑ Each line = one track · hover to see track name
How much revenue is being left behind?
Audience share vs revenue share · benchmark: US $0.004/stream
For each market, the top bar is the audience — how much of a song's listeners are from that country. The bottom bar is the revenue — how much of the money comes from that country. The gap between them is what's being lost. Nigeria has 53% of the audience but generates only 5.3% of potential revenue — because each Nigerian stream pays 10× less than a US stream.
* Revenue share = home_audience% × (home_rate ÷ $0.004 US benchmark). Sources: Spotify Loud and Clear regional data · IFPI Global Music Report 2025 · Chartmetric cross-platform audience.
Which track has the biggest value gap?
All 42 tracks ranked · VFG Score
Nigeria
India
Brazil
S. Africa
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
Every track ranked from biggest gap (top) to smallest (bottom). Hover over any bar to see the track name and full metrics. The further right a bar goes, the more that track's streaming revenue fails to match its audience size. Joha by Asake sits at 64.75 — 72% of its streams come from Nigeria at $0.0004/stream, nearly the full US benchmark gap.
Full Dataset — All 42 Tracks
Sorted by VFG score · all metrics from BigQuery value_flow_gap
Every track in the dataset. VFG Score: the capture gap (higher = more value lost). IDI: normalised 0–1 version of the same gap. Home%: what share of listeners are from the home country. Half-life: how many weeks until the track had half its peak streams. Floor%: where the track stabilised long-term. Cat Value: estimated catalogue value using decay-adjusted multiples.
Track & Artist
Mkt
VFG Score
IDI
Home %
Rate
Half-life
Floor %
Cat Value
What the data is actually saying
6 key findings from the Value Flow Gap analysis
01
Nigeria & India: Extreme Capture Gap
Nigeria averages VFG 47.95. India averages 43.75. Both markets have massive domestic audiences streaming at 10–15¢ per US dollar. The most listeners. The least revenue per listen. The widest structural gap in the dataset.
02
Lagos is #1 on Every Single Nigerian Track
Lagos is the top streaming city on all 7 Nigerian tracks — with 44–72% of total audience. Even Calm Down Remix, which charted in 67 countries, had Lagos as its largest single city. The audience is global but anchored in one place.
03
Four Nigerian Tracks Never Actually Decayed
Essence, Soso, Last Last, and Joha — four tracks that show no measurable streaming drop after 3+ years. Standard models would undervalue their catalogues. They need evergreen pricing, not hit-cycle pricing.
04
Brazil's Domestic Fortress is Structural
Brazilian tracks average 92–97% domestic streams. Nosso Quadro: 399.8M of 433.2M global streams are Brazilian. The barrier is linguistic, not commercial. Breaking out requires switching languages — Anitta had to, and Envolver was the proof.
05
Mexico's Diaspora Was There Before the Charts
El Belicón: zero US on Kworb charts, but 32.5% US audience on Chartmetric. The Mexican-American community in LA was streaming Peso Pluma before any chart recognised him. The audience existed before the infrastructure caught up.
06
Ramadan Resets Saudi Streaming Baselines
Three Saudi tracks show 50–80% drops every Ramadan with 4–6 week gaps in chart data. After Ramadan ends, the tracks recover — but never quite to where they were before. The holy month permanently resets the baseline lower.